Rolling the Dice

It began at 4:30 this morning... the cars leaving from my condo's parking lot, carrying nervous athletes to their final pre-race ritual: the body marking.  It gets earlier and earlier every year, but the last thing you want is to be stuck in a 45-minute line with less than an hour to go before before the starting cannon.

Today's race contenders are going through their rituals, too.  Among them:  deciding "Will I roll the dice today or just let it ride?"

In 2004 Normann Stadler took a gamble on the bike... and won.  Last year Natascha "let it ride"; after taking substantial losses in her swim and run, she remained patient and perseverent, and was rewarded with a winning hand during the last miles of the run.

Those who are racing the Ford Ironman World Championship must decide their tolerance for risk.  Just how much are they willing to gamble; how many chips are they going to put down, and when.

In this game of high-stakes triathlon, I'm favoring Normann and Natascha to repeat their 2004 victories.  Normann will bet it all on the bike.  No longer a surprise, his rivals will still be hard-pressed to respond.  Those who do might could find themselves with the starch taken out of them for the run, forced to cash in their chips by mile 18 and finding themselves at the nickel slot machines.

In contrast, Natascha's day won't be marked by such bold moves.  She'll be cool and content, continually upping the ante throughout the day.  The memory of her last year's run-from-behind victory will be undoubtedly fresh in the minds of Michellie and Lori.  Will Jones bet it all on the bike again, capitalizing on her huge swim lead, with the hope of drawing a winning hand on the run?  I say no.  I expect her to be a bit more conservative in today's ride, inviting a head-to-head run that should be exciting and dramatic. 

Of course, there are many other contenders in today's race, but these are my picks.  There will be a longshot with an ace up his sleeve who makes the podium; there always is.  But -- for the wins -- I'm going with the odds-on favorites.